Stats Insider: Socceroos in toughest Russia World Cup group based on latest FIFA rankings

WHY Australia is in the closest group to a ‘Group of Death’, the Socceroos’ chances of progression, and the latest betting odds.

It’s all in a Socceroos World Cup draw edition of Stats Insider!

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There’s no clear ‘Group of Death’ at the 2018 World Cup because there’s not one group where the four teams would be upset if they didn’t progress.

However, according to FIFA’s world rankings, Australia have the toughest group in Russia.

The Socceroos are currently 39th in the world, while their Group G opponents are 9th (France), 11th (Peru) and 12th (Denmark).

The means the collective total ranking of Australia’s group is 71, which is the lowest at the World Cup.

However, the pots that formed the World Cup groups were based off rankings from October when France was seventh (Pot 1), Peru was 10th (Pot 2), and Denmark was 19th (Pot 3).

“It is obvious when you are in Pot 4 that you are going to come up against three strong opponents, and if you look at the FIFA rankings that’s what we’ve got,” assistant coach Ante Milicic said from Moscow.

“Although it’s a difficult group we believe in ourselves and definitely (can) advance, progress from the group.”

World Cup draw, Russia 2018.Source: FOX SPORTS

WORLD CUP GROUPS STRENGTH BY FIFA RANKING (sorted by lowest combined ranking)

Group C – 71

Group E – 73

Group B – 81

Group D – 93

Group F – 94

Group H – 98

Group G – 103

Group A – 180


Despite only having made the knockout round in one World Cup, Opta has given the Socceroos a 42 per cent chance of progressing to the Round of 16 based on their predictor.

However, Australia also have a 16.9 per cent chance of topping their group, with only France having a higher chance (50.9 per cent), according to Opta.

But the Socceroos wouldn’t have minded being placed in Group H, which is the only group that doesn’t have a previous World Cup winner.


In the Socceroos last six meetings against their Group G opponents, they have won just twice.

While Australia haven’t played Peru before, the Socceroos have beaten both France and Denmark in their last three meetings.

However, the latest clash with the French ended in a 6-0 drubbing.

Last three games v France

12th October 2013: France 6 – 0 Australia in a friendly (Parc Des Princes)

11th November 2001: Australia 1 – 1 France in a friendly (MCG)

1st June 2001: France 1 – 0 Australia at Confederations Cup (Daegu, Korea)

Last three games v Denmark

3rd June 2012: Denmark 2 – 0 Australia (Parken stadion, Denmark)

1st June 2010: Australia 1 – 0 Denmark (Ruimsig Stadium, South Africa)

6th February 2007: Denmark 3 – 1 Australia (Loftus Road, England)


Betting odds have Australia as the underdog in all three matches after the draw was revealed.

TAB have rated the Socceros at $13 to beat France, $3.50 to overcome Denmark and $2.65 to see off Peru.

Germany and Brazil are the favourites to take out the World Cup at $6 while Australia is at $201.

Here’s the latest odds.

Australia v France

$13 Australia

$5.50 Draw

$1.20 France

Australia v Denmark

$3.50 Australia

$3.40 Draw

$2 Denmark

Australia v Peru

$2.65 Australia

$3.40 Draw

$2.45 Peru

To Qualify for Round of 16

$1.05 France

$1.55 Denmark

$3.30 Peru

$4 Australia

When the Socceroos will get knocked out

$1.22 Knocked out in group stage

$4 Knocked out in round of 16

$11 Knocked out in quarter final

$26 Knocked out in semi final

$126 Runner up

$201 Winner

World Cup Winner

$6 Germany

$6 Brazil

$6.50 France

$8.50 Spain

$9 Argentina

$11 Belgium (in from $15)

$17 England (in from $21)

$26 Portugal

$34 Colombia (in from $41)

$34 Uruguay (in from $41)

$41 Croatia (out from $34)

$41 Russia

$51 Poland (in from $67)

$81 Switzerland (out from $67)

$81 Sweden

$81 Mexico

$101 Denmark

$126 Serbia (out from $101)

$151 Peru (in from $201)

$151 Senegal (in from $201)

$201 Nigeria (out from $151)

$201 Australia

$201 Costa Rica

$201 Iceland

$251 Egypt

$301 Japan

$401 Morocco (out from $301)

$401 Iran (out from $301)

$401 Tunisia

$501 South Korea (out from $301)

$751 Saudi Arabia

$751 Panama

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